Double-digit growth: When capital and labor no longer the main drivers
Experts say Vietnam cannot achieve double-digit economic growth by relying solely on capital and labor, but needs new growth engines driven by science, technology, innovation and digital transformation.
The National Institute for Economics and Finance, under the Ministry of Finance, on Tuesday held a workshop in Danang city titled “Establishing a new growth model linked to the double-digit growth target – Renewing Vietnam’s economic development model based on science, technology, innovation and digital transformation for 2026-2030.”
On April 24, the National Assembly - the country's legislature - set a 2026-2030 agenda targeting at least 10% average annual GDP growth.
Changing the model to achieve double-digit growth
Nguyen Quoc Anh, deputy head of the National Institute for Economics and Finance, said Vietnam was entering a new stage of development, with a goal of becoming a developing country with modern industry and upper-middle income by 2030 and a high-income developed country by 2045.
The 2026-2030 period therefore needs to deliver high growth while laying the foundations for rapid and sustainable development over the longer term, he said.
Looking back at 2021-2025, Vietnam’s economy maintained macroeconomic stability, ensured major economic balances, and sustained growth drivers despite multiple external shocks. However, shortcomings in the growth model have become increasingly apparent.
The economy remains heavily reliant on capital, natural resources and labor, while the efficiency of resource allocation and use remains low. Contributions from productivity, science-technology, and innovation have yet to match their potential.
Vietnam needs to shift from a growth model primarily based on capital, labor, natural resources and assembly towards one relying more heavily on science-technology, innovation and digital transformation, while making better use of domestic businesses, Anh added.
Le Mai Lien, head of the macroeconomics and forecasting division at the institute, similarly argued that Vietnam needed to shift during 2026-2030 from “restructuring” to “upgrading the economic structure”, thereby laying the foundation for a new growth model.
The targets set for this period are ambitious, with average annual GDP growth of more than 10% representing a major challenge. “To achieve these targets, new growth drivers must rely more heavily on productivity, science-technology, and innovation,” Lien noted.
Institutions should first become a driver of development by creating a favorable environment for the mobilization and efficient allocation of resources, she added.

Science-technology, innovation and digital transformation should then become the central drivers of growth, while private-sector development should be accelerated to strengthen the capacity and competitiveness of Vietnamese businesses.
Vietnam should also upgrade its processing and manufacturing industries, improve labor productivity and the quality of its workforce, and enhance the quality and efficiency of resource use to lay the foundations for rapid and sustainable growth.
“To achieve double-digit growth, we cannot rely solely on increasing capital, expanding the workforce or boosting investment. The focus must shift to raising productivity, upgrading technology, promoting innovation, developing Vietnamese businesses, and improving the quality of human resources,” Lien said.
No need to follow the old path
Tran Kim Chung, former deputy head of the Central Institute for Economic Management, said the 2026-2045 period presented an opportunity for Vietnam to shorten its development path.
Rapid advances in technology, particularly artificial intelligence, data, automation and the digital space, are fundamentally changing the way economies develop. Vietnam therefore does not necessarily need to replicate the entire path taken by more advanced countries, he said.
“We do not necessarily need to have all the conditions that developed countries had in the past before we can grow. If we make the right choices and take full advantage of technology, Vietnam can shorten its development process,” Chung said.

To achieve double-digit growth, he proposed a growth model based on three layers of drivers.
The first layer involves expanding and improving the efficiency of traditional drivers, including capital, labor, natural resources and markets. These remain important resources for the economy, but they need to be used more efficiently while productivity continues to improve.
The second layer involves creating new growth drivers through emerging forms of economic activity, including the digital economy, data economy, bioeconomy, creative economy, silver economy, night-time economy, low-altitude economy, and space economy.
The third layer is to create breakthrough momentum from science, technology and innovation. This driver has the potential to bring about qualitative changes and shift the economy towards a growth trajectory based on productivity and knowledge.
Vietnam needs to move decisively from management to governance, and from a mindset of “controlling” to one focused on creating conditions, leading, supporting and promoting development, Chung said.
At the same time, the country needs to mobilize resources to the fullest while improving the efficiency of their allocation and use; develop new forms of economic activity; promote science, technology and innovation; develop high-quality human resources; and reform governance methods.
To establish a new growth model, Vietnam needs to “expand, open up new avenues and create breakthroughs”: expand traditional growth drivers, open up new development spaces and drivers, and create breakthroughs based on science-technology, innovation and human resources, he added.
Source: Thanh Van, Nguyen Quang
Photo: Photo by The Investor/Thanh Van.



