Vietnam’s rapid growth reshapes Southeast Asia’s economic rankings: The Nation
Vietnam’s rapid economic growth is reshaping its position in Southeast Asia, with the country projected to overtake Indonesia in nominal GDP per capita in 2026, according to Thailand’s The Nation.
Vietnam’s nominal GDP per capita is forecast to reach US$5,259 in 2026, compared with US$5,153 for Indonesia, potentially placing it fifth among ASEAN economies, the Thai newspaper reported on October 31, citing International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections.
The outlook reflects Vietnam’s expanding manufacturing base, strong export performance and continued foreign investment. The Government has set a target of at least 10% economic growth in 2026, while real GDP grew 9.95% year on year in the third quarter.
Public investment and foreign direct investment (FDI) remain important drivers of the country’s economic expansion. In the first nine months of 2026, disbursed FDI reached US$21.1 billion, up 12% year on year, while registered capital for newly licensed projects rose 76% to US$50.3 billion.
Exports also recorded strong growth, increasing 25% to US$434 billion over the same period, according to figures cited by The Nation. International manufacturers, including Samsung Electronics and Foxconn, have continued to expand their production operations in Vietnam, reinforcing its role in global supply chains.
Mai Fujita, a senior researcher at the Institute of Developing Economies of the Japan External Trade Organization (IDE-JETRO), emphasised the importance of proactive public investment in supporting economic growth. She also highlighted the need to develop human resources and technological capabilities alongside infrastructure to sustain growth over the longer term.
Vietnam is now setting its sights on raising GDP per capita to US$8,500 by 2030, a level comparable to Thailand’s current figure.
Its projected rise in GDP per capita comes as Indonesia continues to expand at a more moderate pace, while Thailand faces slower growth and high household debt. However, nominal GDP per capita rankings are influenced by exchange rates and population size as well as economic performance, and do not in themselves reflect income distribution or living standards.
International forecasts also point to challenges ahead. The International Monetary Fund and the Asian Development Bank project Vietnam’s economy to grow by around 7.5% in 2027, below the Government’s ambition of at least 10% growth in 2026.
The longer-term challenge is therefore to translate rapid expansion into sustained productivity gains and higher incomes. Investment in skills, technology and infrastructure will be crucial to strengthening competitiveness and ensuring that Vietnam’s economic momentum can be maintained.
Source: VOV
